I am fortunate enough to have a good friend, TL, who sends me his excellently prepared “Morning News Notes” on a daily basis. He has graciously allowed me to reproduce them on the blog, and I hope to include this on a daily basis. Just click on the link or the coffee mug below. “Morning [...]
After notching a high earlier in the week for this rally that started in March, 2009, the S&P500 went on to lose over 5% in 3 trading days. This puts the S&P500 below the November 13, 2009 closing high. In the short term, “everyone” expects the proverbial bounce giving pause to bulls and bears alike, [...]
I am fortunate enough to have a good friend, TL, who sends me his excellently prepared “Morning News Notes” on a daily basis. He has graciously allowed me to reproduce them on the blog, and I hope to include this on a daily basis. Just click on the link or the coffee mug below. “Morning [...]
Back on November 16, 2009 and December 1, 2009, I implored investors to sell something, anything. Why? In the absence of a crystal ball, there were technical signposts that were pointing to a market that was running out of momentum. Trust me, I don’t have a crystal ball over here, but the high odds play [...]
The Rydex market timers continue to serve as a good short term contrarian gauge to market action. It is late at night and I will be brief. Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the ratio of the Rydex leveraged and bullish assets to the leveraged and bearish assets in the lower [...]
From a technical perspective, I seem to be much more enamored these days with Japanese equities as opposed to US equities, which are highly overbought and over subscribed too. I last highlighted Japanese equities on December 17, 2009, when we took a look at the i-Shares MSCI Japan Index Fund (symbol: EWJ). Since this mention, [...]
Sorry, I couldn’t help myself on this one. This will only be a momentary diversion as I know the markets can be fickle if one is not humble.
As a corollary to a higher Dollar, it is my expectation that precious metals will be under pressure. For example, I have had a sell signal on the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) since January 11, 2010. Gold still remains in a secular bull market, but on the weekly time frame that I function on, [...]
In 2009, investors were down on the US Dollar, and anytime the US Dollar was down, everything else was up. But as we head into 2010, the US Dollar appears to have found support above the all time lows made around $70 in March, 2008 and reversed higher. There is reason to believe that from [...]
There are two kinds of bulls: 1) there are those bulls who are intent on squeezing every last percentage point from this rally and who believe they can find the exits when the music finally stops; and 2) then there are those bulls who continue to have high expectations that the current market environment will [...]
The composite indicator that measures the trends in gold, crude oil, and yields on the 10 year Treasury has moderated and will end the week below the extreme zone. End of the week weakness in crude oil, gold and Treasury yields has caused the indicator to back off. Typically or at least historically, this indicator [...]
When we last looked at longer term Treasury yields, I stated that longer term Treasury yields were likely to undergo a secular trend change from down to up, but I had reservations because significant resistance was overhead, sentiment was too bullish for higher yields, and Treasury yields were greatly overbought. Honestly, last week I was [...]
It has been many months since I have looked at the key price levels on the ETF’s that represent the major market indices. This used to be a regular feature back in the early days of this rally. I have recently renewed my interest in this methodology of determining significant turning points as these key [...]
If there is one commodity that I believe will be worth watching in 2010, it will be natural gas. Natural gas has the technical characteristics of an asset poised for a secular trend change from down to up, and I believe the price action over the past 4 months has already confirmed that a trend [...]
Rarely in this forum have we used the Rydex market timers to guide us in making that intermediate term trading decision. Typically, money flows in and out of their funds relatively easily, and this data set appears better suited for positioning oneself on a daily basis. However, a longer term (i.e., weekly view) has proved [...]
Some Interesting Reading
Here are several articles that I have read over the last two days that I thought were noteworthy. The first is an editorial from the Wall Street Journal by John Bogle, who is the founder and former chief executive of the Vanguard Group. Mr. Bogle is an investor (as opposed to a trader) and a [...]