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Daily Sentiment Report: 6.20.12

The Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world. Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. The Rydex asset data is sentiment data, and it is based upon real asset flows. It is not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how [...]

June 20, 2012 | 0 Comments More
Economic Indicators Continue to Slide

Economic Indicators Continue to Slide

Several of the economic indicators that go into our real time recession indicator are starting to point to recession.  However, as we have discussed recently, signs of recession over the recent past have not led to recessions and weakness in the equity markets, but rather weakness in the economic indicators have been a sign of [...]

June 19, 2012 | 0 Comments More

Daily Sentiment Report: 6.19.12

The Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world. Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. The Rydex asset data is sentiment data, and it is based upon real asset flows. It is not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how [...]

June 19, 2012 | 0 Comments More

Daily Sentiment Report: Delay

As of 11:30 EST, the Rydex data is not available.  I suspect the delay in the delivery of the data has to do with the new Money Market fund.  As of Friday, the new fund was not in the spreadsheet that is normally sent to me. My source at Rydex, who I spoke with this [...]

June 18, 2012 | 0 Comments More

Daily Sentiment Report: 6.18.12

The Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world. Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. The Rydex asset data is sentiment data, and it is based upon real asset flows. It is not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how [...]

June 18, 2012 | 0 Comments More
Investor Sentiment: Poof!

Investor Sentiment: Poof!

Last week’s bullish signal in the “dumb money” indicator has come and gone just like that – poof!  I guess sentiment isn’t really too bearish.  Yet, can you blame investors for being less bearish since it is all but certain that some central bank will be intervening on the slightest drop in the equity markets.  [...]

June 17, 2012 | 0 Comments More
So Where is the Consensus?

So Where is the Consensus?

We have already discussed the lack of consensus amongst the sentiment indicators, and this discrepancy in the data has me cautious.  Typically, the best market bottoms leading to the most sustainable market rallies occur when the indicators are in alignment.  But despite the lack of convergence, there is one thing the investors seem to agree [...]

June 15, 2012 | 0 Comments More

Daily Sentiment Report: 6.15.12

The Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world. Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. The Rydex asset data is sentiment data, and it is based upon real asset flows. It is not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how [...]

June 14, 2012 | 0 Comments More
Investor Sentiment: There Is No Consensus

Investor Sentiment: There Is No Consensus

In the weekly sentiment round up we noted the bull signal generated by the “dumb money” indicator, yet there was very little supporting evidence from our other measures of investor sentiment.  Specifically, I stated: “the current extreme reading in the “dumb money” indicator is not supported by other measures of investor sentiment.  For example, the [...]

June 14, 2012 | 4 Comments More

Daily Sentiment Report: 6.14.12

The Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world. Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. The Rydex asset data is sentiment data, and it is based upon real asset flows. It is not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how [...]

June 13, 2012 | 0 Comments More

Daily Sentiment Report: 6.13.12

The Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world. Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. The Rydex asset data is sentiment data, and it is based upon real asset flows. It is not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how [...]

June 12, 2012 | 0 Comments More
The Benefit of QE Remains in Doubt

The Benefit of QE Remains in Doubt

The old adage of what is good for Wall Street is not good for Main Street can easily be applied to the policy of quantitative easing (QE).  As the markets approach another QE moment, the debate rages on about the benefits (or lack there of) of implementing a policy that has shown little long term [...]

June 12, 2012 | 1 Comment More

Daily Sentiment Report: 6.12.12

The Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world. Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. The Rydex asset data is sentiment data, and it is based upon real asset flows. It is not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how [...]

June 11, 2012 | 0 Comments More
Recessions and Distorted Market Signals

Recessions and Distorted Market Signals

There is no question that the Federal Reserve’s market interventions have distorted market signals.  What used to be no longer applies.  The elephant in the room with the deep pockets has pushed bond yields down to historic lows, yet the desired effect – a growing economy — has been anything but that.  Despite the massive [...]

June 11, 2012 | 1 Comment More

Daily Sentiment Report: 6.11.12

The Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world. Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. The Rydex asset data is sentiment data, and it is based upon real asset flows. It is not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how [...]

June 10, 2012 | 0 Comments More
Investor Sentiment: Bullish Signal Awaits

Investor Sentiment: Bullish Signal Awaits

The “dumb money” indicator is now showing that investors are extremely bearish, and this is a bull signal.  On average, the best time to buy is 1 week after the signal.  Several caveats are worth noting.

June 10, 2012 | 5 Comments More