thetechnicaltake http://www.thetechnicaltake.com Independent and Original Market Analysis Wed, 16 Jan 2013 13:46:04 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 Tactical Beta is Launched http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2013/01/03/tactical-beta-launched-2/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2013/01/03/tactical-beta-launched-2/#comments Thu, 03 Jan 2013 17:41:04 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6495 TacticalBeta is launched! TacticalBeta is a website that is all about a strategy commonly employed by hedge funds and endowments and that encompasses the best practices of generations. Investing in multiple non correlated assets (i.e., passive asset allocation) is a big improvement over buy and hold. Taking the investing process even further, TacticalBeta will show [...]

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2013/01/03/tactical-beta-launched-2/feed/ 0 Tactical Beta is Launched http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2013/01/03/tactical-beta-launched/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2013/01/03/tactical-beta-launched/#comments Thu, 03 Jan 2013 17:39:12 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6493 TacticalBeta is launched! TacticalBeta is a website that is all about a strategy commonly employed by hedge funds and endowments and that encompasses the best practices of generations. Investing in multiple non correlated assets (i.e., passive asset allocation) is a big improvement over buy and hold. Taking the investing process even further, TacticalBeta will show [...]

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2013/01/03/tactical-beta-launched/feed/ 1 The Chart Book: 12.31.12 http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/31/the-chart-book-12-31-12/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/31/the-chart-book-12-31-12/#comments Mon, 31 Dec 2012 15:36:47 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6454 A graphic representation of the markets to keep you on the right side of the trend.  

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/31/the-chart-book-12-31-12/feed/ 0 Gold Model: Turns Neutral http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/31/gold-model-turns-neutral/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/31/gold-model-turns-neutral/#comments Mon, 31 Dec 2012 14:54:42 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6430 Our gold model is based upon interest rates and technical inputs.  Specifically, our gold model performs best when both our bond model is positive and yields on the 10 year Treasury are lower than the value 26 weeks ago.  Yields on the 10 Treasury are pushing higher, and our bond model is no longer positive.  [...]

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/31/gold-model-turns-neutral/feed/ 1 Investor Sentiment: Happy New Year! http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/30/investor-sentiment-happy-new-year/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/30/investor-sentiment-happy-new-year/#comments Sun, 30 Dec 2012 21:39:27 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6439 Have A Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2013!     The “Dumb Money” indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. This indicator [...]

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/30/investor-sentiment-happy-new-year/feed/ 0 Bond Model: Turns Neutral http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/30/bond-model-turns-neutral-2/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/30/bond-model-turns-neutral-2/#comments Sun, 30 Dec 2012 20:16:36 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6427 The bond model initially turned bullish on November 16, 2012.  It was my expectation that equities would remain weak, and that positivity in the bond model is more of a reflection of economic weakness and market uncertainty.  At historic low yields, bonds don’t seem attractive beyond their safe haven status.  This would seem to sum [...]

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/30/bond-model-turns-neutral-2/feed/ 0 The Chart Book: 12.24.12 http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/24/the-chart-book-12-24-12/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/24/the-chart-book-12-24-12/#comments Mon, 24 Dec 2012 15:08:02 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6412 A graphic representation of the markets to keep you on the right side of the trend.  

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/24/the-chart-book-12-24-12/feed/ 5 Investor Sentiment: This is For Certain http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/23/investor-sentiment-this-for-certain/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/23/investor-sentiment-this-for-certain/#comments Sun, 23 Dec 2012 22:54:36 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6397 In a span of 4 weeks, investors (as represented by the “dumb money” indicator) have gone from a state of despair to one of euphoria.  In over 20 years of data, this is the shortest time it has ever taken the indicator to go from extremely bearish to extremely bullish.  I am not sure what [...]

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/23/investor-sentiment-this-for-certain/feed/ 2 Real Time Recession Indicator: 12.18.12 http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/18/real-time-recession-indicator-12-18-12/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/18/real-time-recession-indicator-12-18-12/#comments Tue, 18 Dec 2012 19:05:18 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6343 A real time recession indicator constructed from a composite of leading economic indicators, high frequency economic data, and SP500 pricing models continues to suggest that the US economy is NOT in recession. This composite indicator utilizes data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (WLI, LEI), the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index), and the [...]

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]]> http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/18/real-time-recession-indicator-12-18-12/feed/ 0 Inflation Pressures: Risk Off http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/17/inflation-pressures-risk-off/ http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/12/17/inflation-pressures-risk-off/#comments Mon, 17 Dec 2012 15:23:34 +0000 blueguyzee http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/?p=6347 A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index suggests that inflationary pressures should be a non-factor for the equity markets. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator and its significance in this [...]

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