A trend following strategy for the SP500 that utilizes the 40 week moving average and a filter constructed from the trends in gold, CRB Index, and yields on the 10 year Treasury will in all likelihood yield a sell signal if prices on the SP500 close this week below the 40 week moving average.
This is a price based (i.e., no fundamental filters), trend following model that draws upon my research with the elements of price structure — the swing pivot. Price structure is just the up and down path that price takes between points A and B, and the pivot points are just the highs and lows along [...]
A trend following strategy for the SP500 that utilizes the 40 week moving average and a filter constructed from the trends in gold, CRB Index, and yields on the 10 year Treasury has given a buy signal .
This will be the first in a series of articles on asset allocation. It is no secret that tactical asset allocation is my preferred framework for investing. Historically, the data supports such an approach, and intuitively, tactical asset allocation makes sense to me. It feels right. I am not re-inventing the wheel as there are [...]
Our indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB Index, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury has not been in the extreme zone for 8 weeks now , and within the context of a trend following strategy that I have detailed here, here, and here, the SP500 should have a positive bias. In [...]
The composite indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB Index, gold and yields on the 10 year Treasury is no longer extreme. As prices on the SP500 are above the 40 week moving average, this would be a buy signal as per our strategy that combines this filter with the 40 week moving average. [...]
Strong and rising trends in CRB Index, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury persist, and collectively, this represents a headwind for equities. I last highlighted our composite indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB index, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury on February 18, 2011. Below I provide some links [...]
What happens when excessive bullish sentiment meets extreme conditions from our indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB Index, gold and yields on the 10 year Treasury? It is the Will Robinson signal. Essentially, this is a set of market conditions that should not be ignored. Of course, investors have been ignoring every danger [...]
One of the strategies that I have frequently written about for the SP500 involves the 40 week moving average and the composite indicator constructed from the trends in crude oil, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury. When these trends are strong and rising, the SP500 faces stiff headwinds. This is data going back [...]
As this headline from the Wall Street Journal shows, inflation pressures are just beginning to be recognized by investors. Figure 1. Headline WSJ My composite indicator, which is constructed from the trends in crude oil, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury and which is a gauge of inflationary pressures, has been at [...]
The ETF’s that represent the major indices are approaching key resistance levels. While technicals and fundamentals barely matter anymore, the markets have come a long way in a short period of time. With momentum waning, resistance may actually do what it normally does – slow this advance. Now that would be a novel idea! Figure [...]
Whether it is due to increasing demand (unlikely) or too much money chasing too few assets (likely), crude oil is on a launching pad that could lead to a 50% plus gain. Here is the technical set up. See figure 1 a monthly chart of West Texas crude (cash data). The indicator in the lower [...]
I am often asked “when will we know that this time is different?” My answer is that we won’t likely know until after the fact, but I can characterize what those words mean. In essence, the “this time is different” scenario is often characterized by rising prices and excessive bullish sentiment. The market continues higher [...]
On November 8, 2010, our composite indicator that looks at the trends in gold, crude oil and yields on the 10 year Treasury registered an extreme value. At that time, I wrote: “A strategy that combines this “fundamental” filter with the 40 week moving average has given a sell signal.” With rising Treasury yields and [...]
With investors extremely bullish and company insiders extremely bearish and with the indicator constructed from the trends in gold, crude oil and yields on the 10 year Treasury flashing extremes, I am once again reminded of the robot from the hit 1960′s TV show, “Lost In Space”. When the boyish Will Robinson was in peril, [...]
It is Nice to Know
It is nice to know that others are reading and referencing my work. This extensive report comes courtesy of Damien Cleusix and it covers “Global Tactical Asset Allocation” for equities for the 1st quarter. One of our Rydex charts is referenced on page 23 of the report with a mention of the Rydex leveraged bulls [...]