Our gold model is based upon interest rates and technical inputs. Specifically, our gold model performs best when both our bond model is positive and yields on the 10 year Treasury are lower than the value 26 weeks ago. Yields on the 10 Treasury are pushing higher, and our bond model is no longer positive. [...]
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index continues to suggest that inflationary pressures are rising, and this, on average, is a headwind for equities. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator [...]
A long term oscillator, known as the Coppock Curve, points towards gains in gold. Figure 1 is a monthly chart of gold with the Coppock Curve in the lower panel. The Coppock Curve is currently trading below the lower trading band that looks for statistically significant extreme readings over the prior 36 month period. The [...]
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index continues to suggest that inflationary pressures are rising, and this, on average, is a headwind for equities. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator [...]
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index is suggesting that inflationary pressures are rising, and this, on average, is a headwind for equities. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500.
These guys must be technicians. Who are these guys? Central bankers, of course. They must have been looking at the charts saying to themselves “we must do something now”. And on Friday, it appears that another European summit has put forth another bail out plan that is short on specifics but promises to fix all [...]
It is the same play. Rather it is the only play in the central banker playbook! When things look dire, turn on the printing presses.
Investor sentiment towards gold has been bearish, and this is looking more and more like a bull signal.
When we last looked at gold and the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) I stated the following: “If GLD recaptures the 153.12 level, then it would be time to get long and strong. My best advice: watch the price action around the 153.12 pivot and act accordingly.“
I remain constructive on the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD). The fundamentals are strong. The price action looks like a double bottom. However, price is likely to close below the most immediate key pivot level (153.12). See figure 1. This is a break below support, and this is never a good sign especially when the [...]
In my opinion, this is the best opportunity to buy gold in several years.
Until proven otherwise, central banks will continue to devalue their currencies and intervene in markets because if they didn’t “life as we know it would not exist”. This is the sole basis for understanding the positive fundamentals behind gold. Period. Economic weakness leading to lower interest rates is very gold positive. But sometimes the price [...]
Today we take a look at the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) and the i-Path Goldman Sachs Crude Oil ETN (symbol: OIL). The price of GLD sits right above a “super” pivot and OIL gap below a key pivot on Friday. It’s a tale of two assets and two pivots. GLD hangs in there. OIL [...]
I last looked at the technical picture for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (symbol: GDX) on March 22, 2012. At that time, prices were near $50, and I was concerned that the GDX would roll out of its trend channel and would proceed lower in a waterfall type decline. This scenario appears to be [...]
Despite the highs in gold being well over 6 months ago, I have remained constructive (see here and here) viewing the extended pull back as nothing more than a consolidation of the prior move. The fundamental back drop for gold remains strong as well. It is my belief (of course, supported by the data) that [...]
Our gold model has turned positive, and this coincides with the improving technical picture, which I discussed 2 weeks ago.
