I have been bullish on Treasury bonds for several weeks now, but honestly, with yields near historic lows, Treasury’s do not appear attractive beyond their safe haven status. As discussed recently, strength in Treasury bonds is a sign of economic weakness, but as we have come to know and love, economic weakness seems to translate [...]
This week’s Chart of the Week goes to the i-Shares MSCI Japan Index Fund (symbol: EWJ). See figure 1 a weekly chart.
I am projecting the SP500 to drop 14% from the closing highs six weeks ago before finding a tradeable bottom. The week that QE3 was announced saw the SP500 close at 1465.77. By my calculations, the SP500 will bottom near the 1260 level, which is nearly 150 SP500 points from today’s prices.
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index suggests that inflationary pressures have decreased. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator and its significance in this recent article.
A graphic representation of the markets to keep you on the right side of the trend.
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series (symbol: QQQ).
In the comments section of one of my posts, reader Phil wrote: “Guy, I love your stuff. Question though. We had a minor correction before it was off to the races after QE2. What makes you think sentiment will be a tie breaker this time? Couldn’t we just as easily head higher into a Fed [...]
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index suggests that inflationary pressures have decreased. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator and its significance in this recent article.
Our fundamental bond model has turned positive, and we are bullish on US Treasury bonds.
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index suggests that inflationary pressures have decreased. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator and its significance in this recent article.
Most market participants considered QE3 a game changer. With the Fed printing money forever, the bullish crowd somehow determined that nothing could go wrong. Ooops!! Someone yelled “breakout” as the SP500 moved to new cyclical highs, but it appears what they meant to say was “get out” leaving investors to wonder if the announcement of [...]
A real time recession indicator constructed from a composite of leading economic indicators, high frequency economic data, and SP500 pricing models continues to suggest that the US economy is NOT in recession.
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index continues to suggest that inflationary pressures are rising, and this, on average, is a headwind for equities. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator [...]
