A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index is suggesting that inflationary pressures are rising, and this, on average, is a headwind for equities. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500.
It was touch and go for a while, but our fundamental bond model has finally yielded a sell signal. The model is now in congruence with the technical picture, which has been looking bearish. As we know, the Federal Reserve has been buying bonds at the long end of the yield curve. Figure 1 is [...]
This is why I use weekly data. Earlier in the week, it appeared that our bond model would issue a sell signal — and let’s be clear that this is a “sell signal” as opposed to a call of turning bearish. But as the week ended, the model remained bullish. There is no sell signal. [...]
It appears that our bond model will yield a sell signal at the end of this week. I use the word “appears” because my models utilize weekly data, signals are generated at the end of the week. As I have stated on several occasions, the technical picture was looking rather weak despite the positive signal [...]
Our bond model turned positive one week ago, and since the bottom in March, 2009, this has generally meant “risk off” for the markets.
I know they don’t move much, but in these turbulent times, just getting your principal back from an investment is a winning proposition. I have been bullish on bonds since March 30, 2012, and at the time, I suggested that this was an early sign of economic weakness, and on April 23 I wrote: “A [...]
I think his person has it right when he writes: “You Won’t BELIEVE How Bearish Investors Are On Treasuries”.
Figure 1 shows a weekly chart of the SP500. In the lower panel is an analogue chart of our bond trading model. This bond model has been bullish for 3 weeks now.
There have been a lot of changes in the trading models over the past 2 weeks, but the basic tenor from this perspective is that hard assets should outperform paper assets.
I have been reading about a pending bear market in Treasury bonds for over two years now. After all, the rationale goes: how low can yields go? Especially, after a 30 plus year bullish run in Treasury bonds? I can understand why investors think that the bond bull market should just die, but a sluggish [...]
On Monday, I became bullish on Treasury bonds, and on Tuesday and Wednesday, Treasury bonds got absolutely shellacked. At present, my “call” has been a dog. So is it time to abandon ship?