A nice discussion with PIMCO’s Bill Gross on Treasury bonds from Bloomberg video which can be found at this link.My technical take is that 10 year Treasuries are several months away from an important market top. Recent articles on bonds can be found at this link.
Market action is all over the place this morning continuing the feeling by many that there is very little consistency to the markets.10 year Treasury yields opened up over 3% and are now in negative territory.Crude oil was up over 5% but now that too is in negative territory.Gold is up almost 4% but it [...]
I have suggested that the next bubble to “pop” may be in long term Treasury yields. After all, yields on the 10 year Treasury are at 50 year lows. I think the secular trend change (if it does come about) for higher yields is probably several months away. In the interim, yields should find support [...]
Two companies in the news today are FedEx Corp (symbol: FDX) and Texas Instruments (symbol: TXN). In both cases, profit warnings were issued and guidance was cut. But the market’s reaction to the bad news was different for each stock. In early afternoon trading, FDX was down 15% and TXN was up 5%. One was [...]
I last looked at copper on December 3, 2008, and I made the following argument: “when I look at a chart of copper and extrapolate this to the global economy, I can safely say that the US is not on the cusp of a new bull market. Any rally should be of the multi week [...]
In the article “Bull Factor: Reversal Of Price Failures”, I spoke of key levels where buying and selling would most likely take place. A key support level is a pivot point low occurring at a time when investor sentiment is bearish (i.e, bull signal). Over 40 years of back testing suggests the following with regards [...]
In a recent post, I suggested that long term treasury yields had the technical characteristics of an asset class where a long term secular trend change could be at hand. See figure 1, a monthly chart of the 10 year Treasury yield. The chart goes back to 1965 and includes a bear and a bull [...]
For the last 12 months I have been following copper as a proxy for world economic growth. As the US weakened in the early part of the year, the BRIC countries remained strong, and decoupling of US growth from global growth had its proponents. This turned out to be proven false, and only came to [...]
In looking solely at the price action, there is one factor that I view bullish. This is the reversals of the price failures in the S&P500 and Dow Industrials. I define price failures as breaks below key support levels. What is a key support level? A key support level is a pivot point low occurring [...]
The Investor Sentiment Composite Indicator has been bearish for two weeks running, and this is a bullish signal. Back testing shows that this is the optimal window for buying. See figure 1, a weekly chart of the S&P500, for the indicator.Figure 1. Investor Sentiment Composite While the Investor Sentiment Composite Indicator (or “dumb money”) shows [...]
Figure 1 is a monthly chart of the S&P500 versus the leading economic indicator (middle panel, orange line) published from the Economic Cycle Research Institute ( http://www.businesscycle.com/). Recessions are indicated by the vertical gray bars and the graphic in the lower panel are the official expansions and contractions as determined by the National Bureau of [...]
In recent commentaries, I suggested that long term treasury yields had the technical characteristics of an asset class where a long term secular trend change could be at hand. The prime fundamental driver would be that the U.S. government would need to make its sky rocketing and newly issued debt more attractive to its foreign [...]
Bounce? Bottom? Bear? Bull? Does anyone in the world really know where the market is headed? While the direction of the market may be unknown, there is one thing for sure: in the history of mankind, there has never been a time when so many people have had an opinion about the markets. Yet what [...]
It has been two weeks since my last commentary, and in this market environment, that seems like a lifetime. The Market Bias Timing System has turned neutral, and despite the widespread belief (hope?) that a trading rally is in the offing as the 2002 -2003 lows are approached during this seasonally positive time of year, [...]
