I found this article at Real Clear Markets, and it comes from Jason Haver at Minyanville. Now I don’t know Mr. Haver nor have I ever heard of him and I rarely read Minyanville, but the catchy title –”SPX, NYA, And Gold: 7 Charts Offering Clues to the Market’s Next Move” — caught my attention.
First, I will credit the author for giving a sense of time to his market call. He is clearly talking about a trade, and he provides parameters for failure (a stop loss) and success (when to take profits). So this is good. What is bad is how the author arrives at his conclusions.
In the first chart that he shows, the author writes: “Clearly seen in this chart is a market that’s been essentially undecided for at least the prior three years.” See figure 1.
Figure 1. Chart
There is nothing clear about this chart! And the analysis is so bad it is pitiful. Any analysis that isn’t reproducible is not trustworthy. If you can not quantify your observations, than how do you benchmark what you are doing?
And I am sure this image will clear everything up. See figure 2.
Figure 2. Chart
Ok, I don’t mean to pick on Mr. Haver but I am. His work must be good as he writes for a big time web site…I guess. But in all honesty, how would you know?