Chicago Fed National Activity Index Declines
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was –0.29 in March, down from +0.07 in February. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity, and it is a component of our real time recession indicator.
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the SP500. The red labeled price bars are those times when the CFNAI has indicated that the US economy was in recession. By our criteria, the CFNAI has been out of recession territory since November 11, 2011.
Figure 1. SP500 v. CFNAI/ weekly
The full report from the Chicago Federal Reserve can be viewed here.
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Category: Economic
